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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement developed with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will submit the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the US Congress is expected to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of documents might be ready “imminently.” Subsequently, the United States would hold consultations with Russian representatives, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“We are counting on five documents. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, approved and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, American representatives declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture more land following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring maritime security, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would serve as assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Russia is near accepting the kind of arrangement being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Kremlin said it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to troops from Nato countries operating in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts remains the territorial question. One proposal involves Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas region it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security units rather than the army in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Absolutely,” stated Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone might be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a national vote. The major impediment is expected to arise when the plans are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, recording the comments as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with additional armaments if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a fair request from us to the United States,” he added.